If you haven't been following the U.S. presidential election, now is a good time to start. With two weeks to go, pundits everywhere are wondering whether Barack Obama's lead over John McCain will hold up. Whether you're a Democrat, a Republican, or none of the above, there are plenty of sites you can bookmark to keep up with the latest polling data. Here are some of my favorites:
1.
Electoral-Vote.com
Electoral-Vote.com follows the current state polls and uses them to calculate the overall result of the election. It might not be the prettiest site design out there, but it updates regularly and makes it easy to see the states at a glance. You can also put in your own state-by-state prediction and let it calculate the result for you.
2.
Real Clear Politics
Take Electoral-Vote, make it look a little cleaner, and make all the features more obvious. You'll end up with this electoral map from Real Clear Politics. You'll find easy links to maps from the past 10 elections, and you can scroll down to the see details of the polls they've included. There's also an option to remove or include "toss-up states." The polls included may vary slightly from what you'll see on Electoral-Vote, so it's up to you to pick the one you think is more accurate (or check both!)
3. FiveThirtyEight
Named after the number of electors in the electoral college, FiveThirtyEight bills itself as "electoral projections done right." It uses a different methodology than the other sites I've mentioned, weighting pollsters according to their historical track records. This is the most detailed of the polling sites, offering a scenario analysis of what would happen with different combinations of swing states. It's also respectable that the creators are transparent about their political affiliations, even though they're just running the numbers. (For the record, they're both voting Obama).
4. NailBite08
NailBite08 is an iPhone web app that serves as a front end for the numbers from Real Clear Politics. It was created by Neven Mrgan as a way to get polling info at a glance when you're on the go. It includes the InTrade Market odds, electoral votes with and without tossup states, and comparative approval ratings of the candidates. This aptly-named app is definitely directed at the political nailbiters amongst us.
5. How Is Obama Doing?
Far from the details provided by sites like RCP and FiveThirtyEight, How Is Obama Doing only tells you two things: how many points Barack Obama is ahead or behind in the popular vote, and how many days are left untll the election.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Jack Rejtman said 6:49PM on 10-21-2008
Yahoo News has an electoral map that shows a lot more. At http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard, you can see electoral projections based on RCP Poll Averages and Intrade Prediction Markets, as well as state-by-state trending, headlines, blogs and voter demographics with a cool rollover that shows candidate support by race. You also can create, view and compare scenarios and share them with friends.
As full disclosure, I helped build Yahoo's map. But I haven't yet seen a site that shows as much content and offers as much interaction.
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Jamison said 3:03AM on 10-22-2008
www.intrade.com
People put their money where their mouth is and, generally, the results are accurate.
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phil said 11:20AM on 10-22-2008
RealClearPolitics has some documented issues in cherry-picking polls in order to show trends they prefer. Instead of them, try pollster.com. My top two are fivethirtyeight and pollster.
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Soybean said 11:27AM on 10-22-2008
Seconded pollster. I can't believe you left them out. I'd also drop electoral-vote.com because they only use the most recent 1-3 polls. They're pretty susceptible to outliers.
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mcmichaels@gmail.com said 12:20PM on 10-23-2008
pollster.com and 270towin.com are great sites. 270 is great if you envy John King and want to play around with the electoral map.
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Guy said 3:26PM on 11-25-2008
You need to follow up this post with which site was the accurate-- that would be 538.
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