Is this Microsoft's tipping point?

by Grant Robertson Feb 22nd 2007

Vista hasn't been an overwhelming success. Sure, it's sold a few new PCs but, it's not proving to be a Windows XP-style revolution of stability, it's no Windows 95-style revolution of usability and it hasn't really changed much of the landscape or given the compelling impression that there's something new, something you must have. It feels more like a round of catch-up aimed at Apple's OS X. Come to think of it, Microsoft's last big launch, the Zune, wasn't all that successful either. Are we witnessing the slips and foibles of an ailing giant? Stowe Boyd says, yes.

He writes, 'Vista will turn out to be the worst black eye for Microsoft, ever. It will be the turning point, when we look back in the future, where we will unequivocally say "that's where Microsoft demonstrated how lost they were."` He also points to The Inquirer who ask, flatly, if turning up Windows Genuine Advantage to kick out the pirates is really the brightest thing to do.

Is this really the moment we'll look back upon and point to as the beginning of a new era of tarnished Microsoft glory? That remains to be seen. What is pretty apparent though; Microsoft is losing the PR war on all fronts.

Tags: microsoft vista, MicrosoftVista, vista, windows

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Todd said 5:15PM on 2-22-2007

We're close, but not quite...

Zune is ( was? ) a joke. Vista is a disaster, considering the money spent to develop it.

Today's launch of Google Apps gets one more step closer to the "tipping point".

Firefox 3 ( and its Super Bowl advertisement, paid for by user donations ) is the "Ring" Microsoft will see just before it dies, but...

...(and I can barely type this without laughing) it will be the ZUNE PHONE that will finally kill off that dinosaur and give us all a little moment of satisfaction for the hundreds of hours they stole from us installing/uninstalling Windows.

Peter said 5:28PM on 2-22-2007

Vista hasn't taken off yet because most people will need new hardware to get the best experience from it.
There are also plenty of applications that don't play well with Vista yet.
In a year or two when Vista is the only thing available, all the apps run properly and many people have upgraded their hardware, come back and see if Vista was a success or not.

Xapplimatic said 6:03PM on 2-22-2007

I believe that the anti-monopoly lawsuits against M$ and the associated loss of stock value was the harbinger of this event.. Many people have forgotten.. but their stock has never regained its former muster. That was the beginning of the end.

Racetrack_Owner said 6:14PM on 2-22-2007

Talk about a near-complete lack of perspective. Vista has been officially on the shelves for about a month now, and you're already ringing the death-knell for the entire corporation. It's ridiculous. The same nonsense was being spewed when XP came out and people were trying to figure out why anybody would ever want anything more than Win2K. And I remember plenty of folks insisting NT4 was a huge mistake and that nobody needed anything beyond the incredible power that was NT 3.51. SSDD.

As for the Zune, it's a minor footnote. I know several people with them, and they love them. Big deal. It isn't remotely as important as you're making it out to be.

Something might bring down Microsoft one day, but Vista is far from being that fatal error.

Ivan said 6:26PM on 2-22-2007

Since when do you judge the success of a product on its first few months on the market. The biggest users are going to be business users. No company worth anything would roll out a brand new product without testing it fully to understand the impact to its existing infrastructure. Give it time, even as revolutionary as XP was for Windows, most companies didn't adopt for a couple years.

And you're right, Microsoft is getting owned on the 360 ... oh wait, that's not true. They really missed the boat there.

And the Zune is a success because you have people talking about it all the time because all the Apple fanboys try to hate on products that are markedly better than their beloved Apple products. I switched from an iPod to a Zune and haven't looked back. Though my fully functioning 60GB video iPod does make a nice paperweight. Once my free songs run out on iTunes, I'll be all Zune Marketplace.

Ivan said 6:26PM on 2-22-2007

One more thing, the nice thing about all these bloggers is that they can make grand "predictions" and are never held accountable for when they are wrong but glorified when they are right.

PeteR said 6:51PM on 2-22-2007

Grant was only asking the question!!

Smacky said 7:16PM on 2-22-2007

How anyone can read the draconian EULA for Vista and NOT consider it a flop is beyond me. Microsoft decides I can't go online, or save a file, because I *might* have a pirated copy of Windows? Not for me.

Ask the 2 million + XP users who were unfairly screwed by Windows Genuine Advantage (love that name, eh? If Microsoft had named the rectal probe, they would have called it the Windows Wonderful Lozenge) how they feel about Microsoft's ability to accurately identify pirated software.

Gardiner Westbound said 7:21PM on 2-22-2007

.

Vista will eventually succeed because currently most new computers come equipped with it.

Linux, OpenOffice and Firefox are Microsoft's real threats. If Dell and HP start shipping Linux computers Bill Gates may be filling up his Porsche at the self-serve.

.

.

Dr Zen said 7:45PM on 2-22-2007

This morning XP downloaded some stuff, as it does, and a screen came up saying that I would gain an advantage from my PC sending the serial number of my version of XP and my IP to Microsoft. It didn't though explain what the advantage to me is. Does anyone know?

I'm delighted to learn though that I will get even more advantage when I switch to Vista. I can hardly wait! All this and ruining the picture on my videos if I have the wrong kind of graphics card, and only 300 Aussie bucks for the privilege.

Jason said 10:41PM on 2-22-2007

You know Vista already has a bigger install base than your beloved OSX don't you?? There were probably thousands more people out there just beta testing Vista than there are copies of OSX in this world. It has only been on the shelf for a month. People in these BLOG-O-SPHERES think they represent the people and culture that will make up this "new world" running all these open source products... PLEASE...

And when you making software that almost EVERYONE in the entire world uses (90%) you can't just up and change everything with each OS release... companies would have to spend thousands of dollars retraining people on how to use their computers... Vista is a huge step forward yet people using Windows XP/2000 will still feel at home with it. That is a testiment to the quality of Windows.

er8sed said 6:56AM on 2-23-2007

Talk about a complete and utter lack of perspective.

If Vista didn't sell another copy, Windows is still on an overwhelming majority of computers. Which means people will still be using it, and still be developing for it.

Most places can't afford to jump ship on Windows. Why? Let me think, what is a new license of all the software on my computer going to cost me if I go to Mac?

IF I can even get that software on OS X. Try getting AutoCAD on the Mac, not happening. Regardless of any superiority of the OS, it just isn't going to happen. Even if there are alternatives, they are not industry standards, which means the people who buy them, aren't going to.

No, this article is pure FUD. It is illogical to think that one of the largest companies in America can suddenly go belly up (unless they are falsifying records) with the release of one product. While MS can't turn on a dime, they can expand. In '95 if someone told you MS would be making consoles and mp3 players, I probably wouldn't have believed you.

Face it, MS is here to stay for a little while. whether you like it or not, Windows affects you. You can either scramble for a tin foil hat, or learn to adapt like you criticize so many end-users for not doing.

I mean think about when you implement a new piece of software and they gripe about "It's different than the last program, wahh." You're doing the same thing by griping about Vista.

Adapt or fail, it's that simple.

Vitor said 10:50AM on 2-23-2007

Please don't forget that, on the gaming market, Microsoft is really doing a good job with its Xbox360 !!!

Todd said 12:35PM on 2-23-2007

"It is illogical to think that one of the largest companies in America can suddenly go belly up...MS is here to stay.."

Worldcom, Enron, Conseco, Texaco, Global Crossing, Pacific Gas and Electric, Calpine Corp.United Airlines.
source: http://www.infoplease.com/toptens/bankruptcies.html

But, I don't think Microsoft will go "belly up", I think their monopoly is at its end. They can change their user hostile ways, or end up as a footnote in some future "How NOT to run a business" text book.

Andrew Fong said 9:18PM on 2-24-2007

Microsoft's has a rough couple of years, but I think it's been more of a wakeup call than a tipping point. MS's resources are enormous -- more so than just cash. MS Research is legendary. For every business unit doing poorly, it has one with tons of potential -- just look at the XBox or Windows Mobile. Even the Zune has the potential to be a success -- it's only version 1.0 and we all know that it takes three tries for MS to get it right, and MS is one of those few companies that can afford three tries ... or for that matter, three hundred tries.

I think we might see a different Microsoft in the next few years thanks to organizational changes and shareholder pressure, but I doubt it's going to disappear anytime soon.

mark said 2:02PM on 3-06-2007

How can Xbox be a success when its not a market leader and has to be sold at a loss. Most Windows users aren't users by choice. The corporate users have it foisted upon them by the empire building IT "gurus" who know that a Windows network needs three times the number of staff to keep it running. Most unsavvy buyers buy on the advice of sales guys who want the bigger sales bonus.Most Mac users I meet have used both and think it better value for money. Most Mac bashers I meet have never used one and are therefore unqualied to comment.

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